📈 Recession or Recovery? Tom Bruce Breaks Down What Wall Street Won’t Say

In this insightful episode of Buy Hold Sell, co-hosts Todd M. Schoenberger and Tobin Smith welcome Tom Bruce, Macro Investment Strategist at Tanglewood Total Wealth Management, to dissect the current economic landscape and its implications for investors.

🔍 Key Discussion Points:

Macro Investment Strategy: Tom emphasizes the importance of focusing on macroeconomic trends over specific sectors or equities, offering a holistic market perspective.

Market Conditions & Recession Outlook: While recession fears have diminished and the S\&P 500 shows positive momentum, Tom warns that much of the good news may already be priced in.

European Economic Recovery: The discussion explores economic resurgence in countries like Germany and Poland, driven by falling interest rates and fiscal stimulus.

Innovation & Manufacturing: Concerns are raised about Europe's ability to innovate compared to regions like Silicon Valley, with structural limitations in Germany's tech sector highlighted.

Housing Market Analysis: Affordability issues due to high mortgage rates and rental prices are examined, particularly in the Sunbelt, though some regions continue to perform well.

Bond Market Concerns: Tom addresses challenges in the bond market, including new debt issuance and foreign ownership of U.S. debt, estimating a 20-25% probability of a recession linked to recent trade developments.

Federal Reserve Leadership: The implications of Jerome Powell's leadership at the Federal Reserve are examined, with both Tom and Tobin expressing apprehension about the potential impact of his departure.

Tax Burdens & Manufacturing Future: The episode concludes with a discussion on the disparity in tax burdens and the future of manufacturing, emphasizing the importance of monitoring economic indicators as they approach a critical deadline.

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